After an event
Pick an event to see what the market did in the weeks and months after each past time it happened. How it works →
Or ask about an index move, e.g. “Nasdaq falls 10% in 2 days” or “Hang Seng up 5% in a week”.
New US tariffs announced: what came after
The market here is the S&P 500, measured by the SPY fund with dividends added back · 20 times in our prices (2016-01-04 to 2026-10-30) · measured from that day's close
| 2 weeks | 4 weeks | 3 months | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle result | +1.1% | +2.1% | +6.9% |
| How often it was up | 65% | 70% | 85% |
| Worst | -5.7% | -5.7% | -11.9% |
| Best | +7.8% | +13.0% | +26.4% |
| Any window | +0.9% · 66% | +1.8% · 70% | +4.6% · 79% |
“Any window”: the middle result, and how often the market was up, over every window of the same length since 2016-01-04, event or not.
Each one (20), newest first
| Date | 2 weeks | 4 weeks | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | -2.5% | -5.7% | +8.0% |
| 2026-01-17 | +1.8% | +1.3% | +4.2% |
| 2025-10-10 | +3.7% | +2.7% | +6.8% |
| 2025-08-06 | +0.8% | +2.6% | +7.0% |
| 2025-07-31 | +3.5% | +3.8% | +9.6% |
| 2025-07-10 | +2.2% | +2.2% | +7.9% |
| 2025-07-09 | +1.4% | +1.0% | +7.9% |
| 2025-07-07 | +1.3% | +1.7% | +8.1% |
| 2025-04-09 | -0.4% | +3.0% | +14.0% |
| 2025-04-08 | +7.8% | +13.0% | +26.4% |
| 2025-04-02 | -1.9% | +5.6% | +16.0% |
| 2025-02-27 | -5.7% | -2.8% | +1.2% |
| 2025-02-01 | +2.3% | -3.5% | -5.4% |
| 2024-05-14 | +0.5% | +3.5% | +4.2% |
| 2019-08-23 | +3.5% | +3.2% | +8.5% |
| 2019-08-01 | -3.5% | -0.8% | +3.6% |
| 2019-05-30 | +5.0% | +7.0% | +6.8% |
| 2019-05-05 | -3.0% | -4.2% | -2.5% |
| 2018-09-17 | +0.7% | -3.2% | -11.9% |
| 2018-06-18 | -1.7% | +2.0% | +5.6% |
- What happened after past ones, not what will happen after the next one.
- The windows overlap: most longer windows hold the next one, so those figures are not separate readings.
- Dates: PIIE trade-war timelines plus official announcements, checked 2026-11-08. Source