PlainQuant

After an event

Pick an event to see what the market did in the weeks and months after each past time it happened. How it works →

Or ask about an index move, e.g. “Nasdaq falls 10% in 2 days” or “Hang Seng up 5% in a week”.

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US government shutdown begins: what came after

Measure on: US · Hong Kong

The market here is the S&P 500, measured by the SPY fund with dividends added back · 4 times in our prices (2016-01-04 to 2026-10-30) · measured from that day's close

2 weeks4 weeks3 months
Any window+0.9% · 66%+1.8% · 70%+4.6% · 79%

“Any window”: the middle result, and how often the market was up, over every window of the same length since 2016-01-04, event or not.

Too few to summarise: we need 5 and our prices hold 4. Here is each one.

Each one (4), newest first
Date2 weeks4 weeks3 months
2026-02-14-0.4%-1.8%+8.5%
2026-01-31-1.8%-2.2%+3.5%
2025-10-01-0.5%+2.8%+2.3%
2018-12-22+10.0%+12.5%+19.8%