After an event
Pick an event to see what the market did in the weeks and months after each past time it happened. How it works →
Or ask about an index move, e.g. “Nasdaq falls 10% in 2 days” or “Hang Seng up 5% in a week”.
War or military strike between countries: what came after
The market here is the S&P 500, measured by the SPY fund with dividends added back · 12 times in our prices (2016-01-04 to 2026-10-30) · measured from that day's close
| 2 weeks | 4 weeks | 3 months | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle result | +1.5% | +2.7% | +7.7% |
| How often it was up | 67% | 92% | 75% |
| Worst | -2.7% | -7.7% | -22.6% |
| Best | +6.1% | +6.6% | +13.6% |
| Any window | +0.9% · 66% | +1.8% · 70% | +4.6% · 79% |
“Any window”: the middle result, and how often the market was up, over every window of the same length since 2016-01-04, event or not.
Each one (12), newest first
| Date | 2 weeks | 4 weeks | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | -2.5% | -7.7% | +10.8% |
| 2026-01-03 | -1.5% | +0.3% | -3.9% |
| 2025-09-09 | +2.3% | +3.2% | +5.4% |
| 2025-06-21 | +3.4% | +4.8% | +11.4% |
| 2025-06-12 | +3.8% | +4.5% | +11.0% |
| 2025-05-06 | +6.1% | +6.6% | +13.6% |
| 2024-10-01 | +2.0% | +2.3% | +3.4% |
| 2024-04-13 | +1.1% | +3.3% | +12.3% |
| 2023-10-06 | -2.7% | +0.8% | +10.1% |
| 2022-02-23 | -0.6% | +5.6% | -6.9% |
| 2020-01-02 | +3.0% | +0.5% | -22.6% |
| 2018-05-09 | +0.3% | +2.3% | +5.3% |
- What happened after past ones, not what will happen after the next one.
- Dates: Caldara-Iacoviello daily geopolitical risk index plus each attack's news report, checked 2026-11-08. Source