After an event
Pick an event to see what the market did in the weeks and months after each past time it happened. How it works →
Or ask about an index move, e.g. “Nasdaq falls 10% in 2 days” or “Hang Seng up 5% in a week”.
Large bank failure or rescue: what came after
The market here is the S&P 500, measured by the SPY fund with dividends added back · 4 times in our prices (2016-01-04 to 2026-10-30) · measured from that day's close
| 2 weeks | 4 weeks | 3 months | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any window | +0.9% · 66% | +1.8% · 70% | +4.6% · 79% |
“Any window”: the middle result, and how often the market was up, over every window of the same length since 2016-01-04, event or not.
Too few to summarise: we need 5 and our prices hold 4. Here is each one.
Each one (4), newest first
| Date | 2 weeks | 4 weeks | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-01 | -0.6% | +1.1% | +10.3% |
| 2023-03-19 | +4.4% | +5.2% | +11.4% |
| 2023-03-12 | +3.3% | +6.7% | +13.0% |
| 2023-03-10 | +2.9% | +6.5% | +11.8% |
- What happened after past ones, not what will happen after the next one.
- The windows overlap: most longer windows hold the next one, so those figures are not separate readings.
- Dates: FDIC failed bank list (bn+ assets) and the Credit Suisse rescue, checked 2026-11-08. Source