Famous stock picking rules, honestly tested
Golden cross
Enter when the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day average; exit when it crosses back below (the death cross), or 50% below the entry as a safety stop.
| Market | Raw backtest a year | Honest estimate a year | Trades | The market, same years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US2019–2026 | 15.6% | 15.3% | 104 | — |
| Hong Kong2019–2026 | 6.4% | 4.1% | 115 | 0.7% |
How to read this
Raw backtest: after costs. Honest estimate: also keeps delisted US stocks in and is discounted for luck. A free account tests the last 5 years, so its numbers can differ.
The market (Hong Kong): the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong 2800, dividends included, over the same dates.