Demo: Golden cross on Hong Kong stocks
Default settings, no tuning.
From 2019 to 2026, this rule's honest estimate is about 7.3% a year after costs, with a worst drop of 59.5%.
Over the same years, the market made 0.7% a year (the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong 2800, dividends included).
The gap is what most backtests miss.
How we checked this 2 of 3 checks passed
- Separate test periods: -12.9% to 26.1% a year.
- 80% of similar paths drop no more than 58.3% from a peak.
- Profitable in 2 of 6 stretches.
Survivorship Some delisted stocks missing
Universe: point-in-time half-yearly 2019-01-01..2026-07-01, most delisted names missing from the source. Factor applied: 0.85.
Testing only today's listed companies skips those that went bust or were delisted, often the worst losers. We test on the stocks available on each past date, delisted ones included where the data has them.
Overfitting Low risk of a lucky fit
Settings of this rule tried on these stocks in the last 90 days: 1 (about 1.0 independent). Chance it isn't luck: 87.2%. Discount: 0.0%.
Try enough settings and one will look great by chance. We count your tries, test on years the rule wasn't tuned on, and discount the result. A rule that works for only one setting is describing the past.
Costs Realistic costs included
Before costs 9.7% a year; after costs 8.6% (hk_default).
Every trade pays commission, exchange fees, Hong Kong stamp duty and the bid-ask spread; frequent trading can lose most of its paper profit to them. We charge broker-like fees on every simulated trade and show what costs took.
Details
By calendar year
| Year | Return | Market | Worst drop | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 (part year) | 2.9% | 5.2% | -4.8% | 1 |
| 2020 | 86.2% | -2.3% | -27.3% | 13 |
| 2021 | -1.5% | -14.8% | -28.5% | 17 |
| 2022 | -32.0% | -14.3% | -42.8% | 35 |
| 2023 | -13.2% | -14.0% | -22.8% | 18 |
| 2024 | 11.6% | 27.9% | -17.5% | 12 |
| 2025 | 71.9% | 37.3% | -14.5% | 7 |
| 2026 (part year) | -16.8% | -9.2% | -28.6% | 18 |
| Whole window | 8.6% a year | 0.7% a year | -59.5% | 121 |
140 of 784 names with bars in the window are outside the point-in-time universe for all of it (never entered)
1 held names had no bar for 5+ sessions and were carried at their last price (a delisting the data does not flag?): 0751.HK
Basis: Tushare raw hk_daily prices; adj_factor = hk_adjfactor cum_adjfactor (multiplicative total return: cash dividends, distributions in kind, bonus issues; latest bar 1); split_factor = 1: volume is raw, not split-adjusted. Window 2019-11-01 to 2026-10-31. Data 20261113-hk-tushare-nightly, engine 0.1.5.
Trades
| Stock | Bought | Sold | Return | Why sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6185.HK | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-30 | -11.1% | still held |
| 3759.HK | 2026-08-17 | 2026-10-30 | -10.1% | still held |
| 2269.HK | 2026-08-06 | 2026-10-30 | 9.8% | still held |
| 2018.HK | 2026-06-10 | 2026-10-30 | -19.3% | still held |
| 1579.HK | 2026-01-30 | 2026-10-30 | 8.4% | still held |
| 1288.HK | 2026-04-21 | 2026-10-30 | 16.9% | still held |
| 0995.HK | 2024-02-05 | 2026-10-30 | 144.6% | still held |
| 0836.HK | 2026-04-17 | 2026-10-30 | 11.2% | still held |
| 0340.HK | 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-30 | -6.0% | still held |
| 0023.HK | 2026-07-31 | 2026-10-30 | 10.2% | still held |
Show 90 more trades
Showing the latest 100 of 131 trades.
| Stock | Bought | Sold | Return | Why sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6869.HK | 2026-10-13 | 2026-10-23 | -28.3% | stop |
| 2607.HK | 2026-07-16 | 2026-10-13 | -7.7% | rule |
| 2689.HK | 2026-07-17 | 2026-09-30 | -26.1% | stop |
| 6613.HK | 2026-07-27 | 2026-08-17 | -2.7% | rule |
| 3668.HK | 2026-02-12 | 2026-08-06 | -10.8% | rule |
| 1304.HK | 2026-07-03 | 2026-07-29 | -29.2% | stop |
| 1908.HK | 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-27 | 1.6% | rule |
| 0751.HK | 2025-06-05 | 2026-07-15 | 45.1% | rule |
| 3993.HK | 2025-05-22 | 2026-07-08 | 135.8% | rule |
| 2252.HK | 2025-02-04 | 2026-07-08 | 51.6% | rule |
| 0322.HK | 2025-12-31 | 2026-07-03 | -6.9% | rule |
| 0175.HK | 2026-04-14 | 2026-06-03 | -25.3% | stop |
| 1114.HK | 2025-01-23 | 2026-04-21 | 35.2% | rule |
| 0753.HK | 2024-11-19 | 2026-04-17 | 11.6% | rule |
| 3900.HK | 2026-02-23 | 2026-04-08 | -25.5% | stop |
| 1801.HK | 2025-04-10 | 2026-02-16 | 102.1% | rule |
| 2328.HK | 2023-04-28 | 2026-02-12 | 107.6% | rule |
| 9926.HK | 2024-09-17 | 2026-01-28 | 60.8% | rule |
| 0667.HK | 2024-08-16 | 2025-12-29 | 191.1% | rule |
| 3958.HK | 2024-09-05 | 2025-06-04 | 54.5% | rule |
| 6979.HK | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-22 | -2.1% | rule |
| 2618.HK | 2024-09-09 | 2025-05-21 | 25.9% | rule |
| 0006.HK | 2023-12-28 | 2025-04-09 | 10.2% | rule |
| 0066.HK | 2024-09-10 | 2025-02-04 | -7.6% | rule |
| 0002.HK | 2023-05-17 | 2025-01-23 | 15.1% | rule |
| 0836.HK | 2024-02-20 | 2024-11-19 | 19.3% | rule |
| 3998.HK | 2024-01-24 | 2024-09-16 | 12.5% | rule |
| 1164.HK | 2023-09-12 | 2024-09-10 | 23.3% | rule |
| 2145.HK | 2024-01-23 | 2024-09-05 | 25.0% | rule |
| 0316.HK | 2024-02-02 | 2024-09-03 | -5.9% | rule |
| 2338.HK | 2023-11-17 | 2024-07-29 | -2.3% | rule |
| 0354.HK | 2023-10-25 | 2024-02-20 | -18.6% | rule |
| 0013.HK | 2023-10-04 | 2024-02-05 | -24.6% | stop |
| 1918.HK | 2024-01-24 | 2024-02-02 | -0.5% | rule |
| 1060.HK | 2023-09-26 | 2024-01-23 | -28.9% | stop |
| 0489.HK | 2023-12-06 | 2024-01-23 | -25.6% | stop |
| 0981.HK | 2023-10-19 | 2024-01-22 | -24.3% | rule |
| 2883.HK | 2023-08-25 | 2023-12-27 | -14.2% | rule |
| 0293.HK | 2023-07-27 | 2023-12-06 | -10.6% | rule |
| 6862.HK | 2023-08-21 | 2023-11-17 | -23.7% | rule |
| 1378.HK | 2023-09-27 | 2023-10-25 | -8.5% | rule |
| 0317.HK | 2022-08-12 | 2023-10-12 | 21.1% | rule |
| 1071.HK | 2022-07-18 | 2023-10-03 | 13.9% | rule |
| 1928.HK | 2022-11-28 | 2023-09-27 | 37.7% | rule |
| 9988.HK | 2023-08-10 | 2023-09-26 | -10.5% | rule |
| 0991.HK | 2023-04-17 | 2023-09-11 | -16.2% | rule |
| 9899.HK | 2023-06-14 | 2023-08-23 | -18.6% | rule |
| 9987.HK | 2022-08-25 | 2023-08-21 | 7.9% | rule |
| 0144.HK | 2023-04-03 | 2023-08-10 | -14.3% | rule |
| 1530.HK | 2022-11-11 | 2023-07-20 | 5.0% | rule |
| 6088.HK | 2022-11-30 | 2023-06-09 | -5.2% | rule |
| 1072.HK | 2022-09-06 | 2023-05-17 | -7.0% | rule |
| 2096.HK | 2022-11-24 | 2023-04-28 | -14.6% | rule |
| 1093.HK | 2022-11-17 | 2023-04-13 | -21.3% | rule |
| 9995.HK | 2022-11-21 | 2023-04-03 | -27.6% | stop |
| 1302.HK | 2022-11-15 | 2022-11-28 | -7.0% | rule |
| 3899.HK | 2022-11-08 | 2022-11-25 | -4.3% | rule |
| 1997.HK | 2022-11-15 | 2022-11-22 | -4.6% | rule |
| 1997.HK | 2022-10-03 | 2022-11-11 | -2.4% | rule |
| 1164.HK | 2022-09-05 | 2022-11-01 | -26.7% | stop |
| 0902.HK | 2022-10-26 | 2022-11-01 | -22.6% | rule |
| 1339.HK | 2022-03-03 | 2022-10-27 | -4.5% | rule |
| 0762.HK | 2022-09-19 | 2022-10-27 | -10.1% | rule |
| 1876.HK | 2022-07-05 | 2022-10-24 | -27.7% | stop |
| 0288.HK | 2022-06-07 | 2022-10-17 | -20.1% | rule |
| 2343.HK | 2022-09-15 | 2022-10-03 | -14.2% | rule |
| 3692.HK | 2022-08-29 | 2022-09-16 | -24.4% | rule |
| 2269.HK | 2022-08-26 | 2022-09-15 | -23.6% | stop |
| 0990.HK | 2022-04-13 | 2022-09-06 | -26.5% | stop |
| 1258.HK | 2022-03-28 | 2022-09-02 | -4.6% | rule |
| 6066.HK | 2022-08-18 | 2022-08-26 | -1.5% | rule |
| 1368.HK | 2022-07-05 | 2022-08-25 | -25.3% | stop |
| 1288.HK | 2022-01-25 | 2022-08-24 | -6.6% | rule |
| 2669.HK | 2021-12-07 | 2022-08-18 | 6.6% | rule |
| 1378.HK | 2022-03-09 | 2022-08-12 | -16.0% | rule |
| 1208.HK | 2022-05-18 | 2022-07-18 | -27.4% | stop |
| 1787.HK | 2022-03-15 | 2022-06-29 | -0.5% | rule |
| 0002.HK | 2021-12-30 | 2022-06-29 | -15.5% | rule |
| 1196.HK | 2022-05-04 | 2022-06-06 | -35.3% | stop |
| 3996.HK | 2021-08-10 | 2022-05-04 | -1.4% | rule |
| 6881.HK | 2021-10-25 | 2022-05-03 | -6.9% | rule |
| 0004.HK | 2022-04-07 | 2022-04-08 | -3.1% | rule |
| 2727.HK | 2021-12-24 | 2022-03-31 | -17.0% | rule |
| 1072.HK | 2021-08-20 | 2022-03-25 | -10.1% | rule |
| 0817.HK | 2022-01-21 | 2022-03-15 | -30.6% | stop |
| 6690.HK | 2021-12-23 | 2022-03-09 | -25.6% | stop |
| 0826.HK | 2021-08-24 | 2022-03-03 | -24.7% | rule |
| 2357.HK | 2022-01-11 | 2022-01-25 | -9.4% | rule |
| 1772.HK | 2019-11-06 | 2022-01-21 | 606.0% | rule |
| 0175.HK | 2021-08-02 | 2022-01-06 | -25.3% | stop |